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This week is all about predictions, polling and risk taking - what do current polls tell us about who might win the 2024 presidential race? We get a behind the scenes look at how statisticians make their predictions, and how accurate they are. Our guest Nate Silver developed a forecasting system which correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states in 2008, and all 50 states in 2012. He also talks to Marianna and Sarah about his new book on risk - On the Edge - and his journey from professional poker playing to politics.HOSTS: Sarah Smith, BBC North America Editor Marianna Spring, BBC Disinformation & Social Media CorrespondentGUEST: Nate Silver, U.S. election forecaster and stastician. Founder of FiveThirtyEight and the Silver bulletin, and author of On The Edge.GET IN TOUCH: • Join our online community: https://discord.gg/qSrxqNcmRB • Send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp to +44 330 123 9480 • Email Americast@bbc.co.uk • Or use #AmericastThis episode was made by Keiligh Baker with Purvee Pattni, Catherine Fusillo and Claire Betzer . The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.If you want to be notified every time we publish a new episode, please subscribe to us on BBC Sounds by hitting the subscribe button on the app.You can now listen to Americast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say "Ask BBC Sounds to play Americast”. It works on most smart speakers.US Election Unspun: Sign up for Anthony’s BBC newsletter: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68093155Americast is part of the BBC News Podcasts family of podcasts. The team that makes Americast also makes lots of other podcasts, including The Global Story, The Today Podcast, and of course Newscast and Ukrainecast. If you enjoy Americast (and if you're reading this then you hopefully do), then we think that you will enjoy some of our other pods too. See links below.The Global Story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/w13xtvsd The Today Podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0gg4k6r Newscast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/series/p05299nl Ukrainecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0bqztzm

Following her first interview since entering the presidential race, where does Vice-President Kamala Harris stand on the issues that matter to Americans?And, is campaigning a family affair? We take a look at whether a single person could run for the White House, or whether a candidate could lose the race because of a media-shy partner.HOSTS:* Sarah Smith, BBC North America Editor * Marianna Spring, BBC Disinformation & Social Media CorrespondentGET IN TOUCH: * Join our online community: https://discord.gg/qSrxqNcmRB * Send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp to +44 330 123 9480 * Email Americast@bbc.co.uk * Or use #AmericastUS Election Unspun: Sign up for Anthony’s new BBC newsletter: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68093155This episode was made by Ben Mundy with Rufus Gray. The technical producer was Jack Graysmark. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.US Election Unspun: Sign up for Anthony’s new BBC newsletter: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68093155If you want to be notified every time we publish a new episode, please subscribe to us on BBC Sounds by hitting the subscribe button on the app.You can now listen to Americast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say "Ask BBC Sounds to play Americast”. It works on most smart speakers.Americast is part of the BBC News Podcasts family of podcasts. The team that makes Americast also makes lots of other podcasts, including The Global Story, The Today Podcast, and of course Newscast and Ukrainecast. If you enjoy Americast (and if you're reading this then you hopefully do), then we think that you will enjoy some of our other pods too. See links below.The Global Story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/w13xtvsd The Today Podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0gg4k6r Newscast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/series/p05299nl Ukrainecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0bqztzm

Inside Trump’s White HouseLONG After one of the greatest political surprises in American political history, Donald Trump’s 2016 victory gave way to a controversial and consequential presidency. We look back on the four years that were defined by staff fallouts, COVID, and an attempted insurrection. Anthony is joined by two journalists who were in the room with Trump while he was changing American politics one decision at a time.Americast is profiling the four candidates in the race to become the next President and Vice President of the United States.HOST: * Anthony Zurcher, North America correspondentGUESTS: * Meredith McGraw is a national political correspondent at Politico * Jonathan Karl is the Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC NewsGET IN TOUCH: * Join our online community: https://discord.gg/qSrxqNcmRB * Send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp to +44 330 123 9480 * Email Americast@bbc.co.uk * Or use #AmericastThis episode was made by Chris Flynn, George Dabby, Purvee Pattni, Catherine Fusillo, Claire Betzer and Rufus Gray. The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.US Election Unspun: Sign up for Anthony’s new BBC newsletter: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68093155If you want to be notified every time we publish a new episode, please subscribe to us on BBC Sounds by hitting the subscribe button on the app.You can now listen to Americast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say "Ask BBC Sounds to play Americast”. It works on most smart speakers.Americast is part of the BBC News Podcasts family of podcasts. The team that makes Americast also makes lots of other podcasts, including The Global Story, The Today Podcast, and of course Newscast and Ukrainecast. If you enjoy Americast (and if you're reading this then you hopefully do), then we think that you will enjoy some of our other pods too. See links below.The Global Story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/w13xtvsd The Today Podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0gg4k6r Newscast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/series/p05299nl Ukrainecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p0bqztzm