FiveThirtyEight Politics Folgen

Game time for the Republican presidential primary begins in earnest this week. The first debate is being held in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and it marks the beginning of a five-month countdown to the Iowa caucuses, during which there will be monthly debates, nonstop campaigning and a likely winnowing of the field. While this may be when the nation begins to tune in, folks in the early states have been tuning in -- either by choice or because of multimillion-dollar ad spending -- for months. And so, in preparation for the months ahead, in this installment of the podcast, we take in the view from the early states. To do that, Galen speaks with Katie Akin, politics reporter at the Des Moines Register; Josh Rogers, senior political reporter at New Hampshire Public Radio; and Joseph Bustos, politics reporter at The State in Columbia, South Carolina. They also play the second-ever installment of “Guess Which Candidate Said This!" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump has been indicted for a fourth time, now in Fulton County, Georgia, for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in that state. While the alleged crimes in this case are similar in some ways to his previous federal indictments in special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation, there are important differences. First, these are state crimes, based in part on Georgia’s racketeering laws, which have historically been applied much more broadly than federal racketeering laws. Second, and relatedly, the core of this case involves an alleged criminal enterprise, which has led to the indictments of 18 other people also involved — in various ways — in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Third, these being state crimes, the president has no power to pardon or commute a sentence in this case — important when thinking about the possibility of a second term for Trump. And unlike the former president’s prior indictments in New York, Florida and Washington, D.C., Georgia allows its court proceedings to be televised. That could be a significant factor in how the public might process the indictment. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with a group of Georgia legal experts about what to expect from this case and what makes it distinct from Trump's other legal woes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Abortion rights advocates notched another win in a red state. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend the constitution to a 60 percent supermajority. Instead, such amendments will continue to require a simple majority, making it likelier that Ohioans will pass an amendment to codify abortion rights in the state constitution this November. Most of the post-election analysis concluded that abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections now, and it’s hard to deny in otherwise low-turnout environments, but should we apply these lessons to high-turnout environments -- like the 2024 presidential election -- as well? The crew discusses in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. They also do a 2024 GOP vice presidential draft, in a world where former President Donald Trump wins the presidential primary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices