FiveThirtyEight Politics Folgen

Galen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public. They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls. Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices